The Respected Gaffer

Slaven Bilic is wedded to the familiarity of 4-4-2 (or a 4-1-3-2 as it often appears), to the frustration of some supporters of the national team, but there is little argument with its effectiveness for Croatia. It’s not a particularly defensive variant of the system anyway and Bilic is not fearful of deploying flair where other managers would favour function. That decision is a little easier to make when he has players with the talent of Modric at his disposal, but there aren’t many managers who would persevere with two strikers in any sort of 4-4-2 with Modric in the side.

Bilic only departed from the 4-4-2 setup once during qualifying, and that was for Croatia’s 2-0 loss in Greece. Otherwise he has always gone with two strikers and a four man midfield, albeit often organised as more of a diamond than a straight quartet.

The manager is widely expected to leave his job after the tournament, though it’s impossible to know if this may have a positive or adverse affect on his team’s chances. He has seemed to be on the verge of leaving for a few years now though, he has certainly always appeared “open to offers” so it’s unlikely to overly influence the dressing room harmony.

The Slightly Unconvincing Defence

Croatia’s first choice goalkeeper is Stipe Pletikosa, a once more than competent goalkeeper who fell out of favour at Spartak Moscow, sat on the bench at Tottenham for a year and struggled to find first team football until Rostov offered him a deal in the summer. At 33 years of age he’s 3 years younger than Shay Given but has looked past his peak for a couple of years already and remains prone to the odd high profile error.

The backup goalkeepers are likely to be Danijel Subasic (of Ligue 2 Monaco) and Ivan Kelava of Dinamo Zagreb. Unlike David Forde, neither is a household name around Europe, and they only have three caps between them according to Wikipedia.

Croatia’s defensive leader is the experienced Josip Simunic who marries the robust and rugged basics of defending with a gracefulness in possession. He has 93 caps to his name, was once booked three times in the same game by Graham Poll and is integral to a Croatian defence that is blessed more with full backs than centre backs. Following an illustrious (though largely mid-table) career in the Bundesliga he is currently enjoying his first spell in Croatian league football (he is Australian by birth) with the domestically all-conquering Champions League participants Dinamo Zagreb. There have been creaks in Simunic’s armour recently (and he has lost out at club level to his national team understudy – Vida) but since the retirement of Niko Kovac, his experience is increasingly important to a Croatian defence that is in transition from one era to the next.

Simunic’s partner at the heart of the defence is likely to be either Dejan Lovren or Gordon Schildenfeld. Lovren was the man in possession until the play-off win over Turkey but he has had an injury interrupted season with Lyon and the latest Achilles injury may even rule him out of the tournament. He is a promising, rather than established quality, defender who has had problems with on-field discipline but would certainly have been the likely starter if he had managed to complete a regular season. Schildenfeld was Lovren’s replacement in the play-offs against Turkey and has just helped steer Eintracht Frankfurt to promotion to the Bundesliga. Schildenfeld is another physically imposing defender but he’s a latecomer to the international scene with only 10 caps to his name by the age of 27, most of which came in the last 12 months.

The Croatians have two Bundesliga-based full-backs of genuine quality in Vedran Corluka and Danijel Pranjic. The former will play on the right hand side of the Croatian defence, having impressed there for the past number of years, which frees up Srna to play ahead of him in midfield. Pranjic on the left hand side is equally competent going forward but is perhaps not as natural a defender and may hopefully be distracted by the vast wages currently on offer to him from an un-named Chinese team.

Ivan Strinic who plays in Ukraine with Dnipro will battle with Pranjic for the left hand position, and may even get the nod, while Domagoj Vida, another relatively recent Dinamo Zagreb recruit, will cover the two full back positions and could even deputise at centre back in an emergency. The other reshuffle open to Bilic that may be more appealing if Lovren misses out, is to reinstate Srna at right back and allow Corluka to play centre back. Certainly Croatia’s riches in midfield aren’t matched by their defensive options.

The Talented Midfield

It’s that midfield area that elevates Croatia above Ireland and will be the area they, along with Spain and Italy, will be targeting in pursuit of a victory. Bilic, speaking on Newstalk recently, was as complimentary as you might expect about Crotaia’s first opponents in the tournament but he did hint at his optimism by mentioning the amount of ball Slovakia and Russia had against Ireland in recent qualifying games. He was keen to point out that Ireland were more effective with their limited possession than Slovakia but you could almost hear him salivate over the phone at the thoughts of Modric, Rakitic, Perisic et al running at the Irish defence.

Unless the aforementioned injury crisis forces him to right back, Croatia’s captain Darijo Srna will play on the right wing. The Shakhtar Donetsk winger is a terrific player with boundless energy, excellent close control, fine crossing ability, and a wonderful long pass (which he used to breathtaking precision in the Europa League Final in 2009). His energy means he is the springboard for plenty of Croatian counter-attacks and his natural defensive qualities ensure he is as diligent tracking back as he is effective going forward. In other words he is exactly the type of wide midfielder Ireland’s wingers won’t enjoy playing against. Srna enjoys a long working relationship with Corluka behind him, and though Ireland rely heavily on wingers to create scoring opportunities, the chances of Ward and McGeady overpowering this duo on the Irish left flank are disappointingly remote.

Click here to view the embedded video.

The left flank will likely be occupied by either Ivan Perisic playing as a traditional winger or Ivan Rakitic playing as a more narrow left-sided midfielder. The choice here is a clash of styles, not ability, as both offer real quality from that left flank. Perisic had his breakthrough season in Belgian football in 2010/11 where he netted 22 times for Club Brugge from the wing. He hasn’t quite been able to replicate that in the tougher environment of the Bundesliga but 7 league goals in his first season, where he was a frequent but not indispensable starter, is not a bad return for a winger. Unlike Rakitic, Perisic is a natural winger and facilitates a symmetrical midfield if Bilic opts for orthodox width on both flanks.

Rakitic was deployed as a left-sided midfielder against Turkey in the play-offs and offered a more protective option to the side than Perisic would provide. He is a central midfielder by trade who has matured into an excellent player at Sevilla, following his move from Schalke last season. His versatility may allow Croatia to combat Spain’s midfield trio but that’s less likely to be a concern in the match against Ireland where Whelan and Andrews won’t pose the same threat to Croatia’s midfield pairing.

The decision for Bilic rests on whether to use Rakitic to try and control possession through central areas against Ireland or to opt for balance and a crossing option by picking Perisic as a conventional winger. Either way, while both are excellent players, they’re less likely to be as defensively disciplined as Srna and Duff may enjoy the opportunity of taking on an exposed Pranjic or Strinic.

The central pairing of Vukojevic and Modric are as contrasting and complementary as a nation could wish for. Vukojevic is the defensive midfield fulcrum who provides the stability to allow the likes of Modric, Kranjcar, Rakitic and Perisic to drift forward in support of the strikers. He moved from Dinamo Zagreb to the similarly dynamic Kiev in 2008 and has developed into a pivotal player for club and country since then. While Croatian attacking midfielders seem in abundant supply, Vukojevic is the only really classy defensive midfielder they have available. Backup will be provided by Dujmovic and Leko, one a journeyman, the other a decent player on the wane.

Modric needs little introduction on the international scene having starred in Euro 2008 qualifying and the tournament itself, establishing himself as one of the best attacking midfielders in Europe. Despite his excellent skill level and threat with the ball, Modric doesn’t ignore his defensive duties, a vital quality to play centrally in a 4 man midfield, no matter how defensive-minded his partner might be. He may not be required to showcase these skills against the Whelan-Andrews defensive midfield axis that Ireland present, but he certainly won’t have an issue dropping deeper to pick up possession if he finds the Irish pairing unwilling to move from their trench in front of the back four.

Obviously his real threat is with the ball and while he’s an accurate passer (completing 87% of his passes in 2011/12 in the EPL) it’s his dribbling in a central area that makes him so dangerous. Croatia play an awful lot of football through Modric and Ireland’s chances of success will be greatly influenced by the ability of Whelan and Andrews to get close to him and prevent him linking with his strikers.  On the plus side, Glenn Whelan has played 153 minutes against Modric this season, winning one game and drawing the other. On the negative side, Whelan fouled Modric in the penalty area in one of those games, conceding a penalty in the process.

The midfield replacements will likely comprise the more prosaic Dujmovic and Leko, and the more elegant Kranjcar and either Perisic or Rakitic. There are a couple of wildcard options available to Bilic. Sammir – the Brazilian born Dinamo Zagreb midfielder – has made public his desire to pay for Croatia and would certainly offer even more creative midfield talent but his overtures are likely to be rejected. The tournament has also come too soon for Mateo Kovacic, the young Zagreb starlet,

The Options Up Front

Croatia’s strong attacking talent continues to their forward line where the established strike partnership of Eduardo and Olic has been threatened by the more recent emergence of Mandzukic and Jelavic. Eduardo has picked up an injury and his participation at the tournament is now in some doubt, though whether he’d make the starting eleven or not is debatable.

The likely strike partnership will be Olic and Mandzukic, with the Wolfsburg striker’s impressive end to the Bundesliga season just enough to see off Jelavic’s simultaneous impact in England. Mandzukic finished the season with 11 league goals in the German top flight where he struck up an excellent partnership with Patrick Helmes that improved as the season progressed. He offers a bit more breadth to his game than the more prolific (but slightly more one-dimensional) Jelavic and is likely to be rewarded by Bilic for consistent performances over the course of the qualifying campaign.

Mandzukic will be joined at the Volkswagen Arena next season by compatriot Ivica Olic whose effervescent battling style endeared him to supporters of Bayern and the Croatian national team. His impressive workrate compensates for his modest goalscoring tally and he will comfortably see off the threat of Petric and Klasnic, one of whom will probably make the squad anyway.

It’s not a strike partnership that promises a glut of goals – their aggregate total of 15 goals in 55 club appearances in 2011/12 looks poor until compared to their even worse combined 20 goal haul in 104 international caps – but it will provide plenty of endeavour and there are more than enough goal threats from midfield to compensate.

Jelavic is certainly likely to play a part from the bench, and depending on progress through the tournament he may earn a start at some stage. He only has two international goals to his name thus far, so he’s relatively unproven at this level and therefore unlikely to force his way into Bilic’s initial plans, so is unlikely to feature from the start against Ireland.

The Groundless Optimistic Conclusion

In many respects this Croatian team is better equipped to beat Ireland than either Spain or particularly Italy who have both been frustrated by well-organised and disciplined defences in the past. They are unlikely to be surprised or outfoxed by any show of defensive willpower by Ireland and they have almost as much attacking guile as either of the two stronger seeds.

The Irish media have targeted this game as the one to win, and you can already hear Dunphy complaining at half-time about the negative mindset Trapattoni has imposed on this wonderful bunch of expressive Irish players. However there is something wonderfully consistent and stubborn about this current Irish team. They pay no heed to criticism, they won’t be adopting a more expansive gameplan simply because they’re in a tournament, and they will know that they have inferior players who need to stick rigidly to a shape to have any hope of taking points off more respected nations.

The strength of Srna on Croatia’s right flank is a real concern, nullifying one of Ireland’s only creative attacking outlets, but there are vulnerabilities in that Croatian defence that Robbie Keane has made a habit of exploiting. If the Irish midfield can look after Modric (and they will be helped by not having to worry about a second midfielder venturing forward) then the match might just come down to a battle between the four strikers and the four centre backs. In that scenario (i.e. completely removing their ridiculously more talented midfield from the equation) the Keane-Dunne axis may just have too much for Simunic and Olic.

Ireland to win by four.

Playing a 4-3-1-2, Prandelli has set Italy out to play a very easy-on-the-eye style of football. Antonio Cassano was the star of the show in qualifying, netting 6 goals in qualification and acting as the talisman for Prandelli’s side. Long been considered the problem child of Italian football, Cassano has showed a mature side to himself in recent years and enjoys a very warm relationship with his manager.

Squad
Goalkeepers:

Gigi Buffon is a certainty to travel barring any major injury or such. He will likely be joined by two of Morgan De Sanctis, Salvatore Sirigu, Emiliano Viviano and Federico Marchetti. De Sanctis would be most likely to travel with Sirigu and Viviano battling it out for the third keeper slot.

Defence:

The defence pretty much picks itself for Prandelli. Abate and Maggio look nailed-on for the right back vacancies, Barzagli and Chiellini will likely be Italy’s starting centre halves, Leonardo Bonucci’s good recent form and position in the meanest defence in Europe has likely secured his place ahead of former Bari teammate Andrea Ranocchia who has had an indifferent season blighted by injury and form problems at struggling Inter. Angelo Ogbonna has impressed when he has featured for Italy under Prandelli and his ability to cover at left back will likely see the Serie B man grab the fourth central defensive spot. Davide Astori and Ranocchia will be waiting in the wings for any injuries to these four centre backs. At left back Domenico Criscito seems to have ousted Federico Balzaretti as Italy’s starting left back, Balzaretti looks likely to go as his back-up though the recent impressive form of Juventus left back Paolo De Ceglie could throw him into contention.

Midfield:

Italy boasts a very impressive midfield. Anchored by the supreme Andrea Pirlo who has arguably been the best player in Serie A this season (a certain Zlatan Ibrahimovic would have something to say about this). He will joined by one of Rome’s two pillars, the peerless Daniele De Rossi has rediscovered his best form this season and it is a huge boost to Prandelli, few midfielders can rival an in-form De Rossi, actually make that zero. Thiago Motta adds some abrasiveness and with De Rossi and Motta flanking the gifted Pirlo, Italy won’t be out-muscled in midfield. Nocerino and Marchisio will offer goals from midfield and will both be hoping a strong end to the season (where they battle each other for the Scudetto ) will propel them into Prandelle’s first team choices.

What some would judge to be the weakness in Prandelli’s new look Italy would be the role of trequartista. It’s no secret that Italy have struggled ever since the retirement of the greatest no.10 in football when Francesco Totti called it a day after the pinnacle of Berlin 2006. Riccardo Montolivo and Alberto Aquilani have been tried in this role but with neither being naturals in this position they have put in some indifferent performances. Overall these 7 midfielders look safe for Euro 2012. Lazio’s Stefano Mauri and Atalanta’s Luca Cigarini would be the likely choices to step-in in the event of injuries.
Attack:

Italy was rocked at the end of 2011 with the health problems of Antonio Cassano and serious knee injury suffered by Giuseppe Rossi. These two players struck up such an impressive partnership under Prandelli and while Cassano has recently returned to action, Rossi has suffered a reoccurrence of the injury and will definitely miss Euro 2012. With Rossi’s unavailability a slot has opened up in the starting line-up and in the squad.

Five attackers are likely to travel and provided Cassano proves he has made a full recovery he will be one of them. Sebastian Giovinco, Mario Balotelli and Giampaolo Pazzini have been regular faces in Prandelli’s squad and should travel despite Balotelli causing some consternation with his chequered disciplinary past and Pazzini struggling for form with Inter this season. The final striking spot is up for grabs, Juventus Alessandro Matri, Roma duo Fabio Borini and Pablo Osvaldo and Udinese’s Antonio Di Natale will likely scrap it out. Prandelli has not discounted a return for Alessandro Del Piero or Francesco Totti but it would appear unlikely he would call upon them. Juventus striker Fabio Quagliarella is another long shot.

Tactical Analysis:

Likely line-up:

While not boasting some of the household names of previous Italian sides, the Italian defence has a very solid look about it. Having the best defensive record in qualifying – only conceding two goals (one of them to the wonderful Alex Kolarov), and 3 of the likely back 5 coming from Juventus who hold the best defensive record across Europe’s top leagues – nobody should underestimate the miserly nature of this Italian defence. Gigi Buffon recently broke Dino Zoff’s record for caps in goal, the captain has proven to be one of the greatest keepers to ever grace the game and he provides such a reassuring and calming presence to his side. Italy boast two outstanding attacking right backs in Abate and Maggio, both have the physique and speed of 100 metre sprinters. Maggio is likely to get the nod here and he carries a big goal threat, especially from an aerial perspective (look for Pirlo clipping balls into the back post for Maggio to attack).

Barzagli and Chiellini provide a solid partnership at both club level and international level. Chiellini is one of the best defenders around and Barzagli is a reliable partner beside him. Criscito may not be as forceful as his wingmen on the right hand side but he is nevertheless a good attacking outlet from left back and a reliable defender. Balzaretti is a very raw full back but continually makes forays forward, although his final ball is mostly lacking.

In midfield, Andrea Pirlo is the beating heart of this Italian side, the Juventus man is mesmeric when you see him play, he saunters around the pitch at half pace with a wand of a right foot that can put the ball anywhere. So calm on the ball, you will never see him rushed into a decision. Quite simply, when Pirlo plays, Italy play. His passing is an art of deception, his ability to delay and disguise passes is unrivalled in football, lulling teams into a false sense of security before delivering a pass you’d imagine impossible.

De Rossi is another world class performer in midfield, the term ‘complete midfielder’ was invented for De Rossi. His skills are not only imperious but transferable (he has played in centre back for Roma this season at times), he is combative, strong, athletic but he also has wonderful technical skills, comfortable pinging balls 70/80 yards of either foot, he pertains a wonderful tactical mind with his reading to the game, what’s more is De Rossi is a leader a warrior.

Thiago Motta makes up the final part of this trio, spikey and abrasive would be two words to describe Motta, he’ll be there in an enforcer manner in the Italian midfield protecting the crown jewel, Pirlo. A good left foot and a very tactical outlook make Motta a very important player in this midfield.

Montolivo and Aquilani will battle it out for the advanced midfield role, both players are comfortable on the ball and will also be able to sit back deeper and help out if needed. Both players have received criticism for the passive nature of their game – flitting in and out of play – but they remain talented players with a decent passing range. Montolivo is likely to get the nod despite a below-par performance for struggling Fiorentina, his former manager Prandelli is a big fan and his trust could be very important.

In attack, the question is who will partner Cassano. Prandelli opted for the two little men in Rossi and Cassano through qualification and this led to superb results, a very attractive and cohesive partnership was formed, given Rossi’s absence Prandelli must now decide whether to revert to type and give another small man in Giovinco the nod or opt for the clinical Pazzini or enigmatic Balotelli.

Pazzini seems to hold the trump card here as he possesses a great understanding with Cassano during their time at Sampdoria where they forged the best attacking partnership in Serie A, but his form must be a real worry for Prandelli, having started off superbly following his move to Inter in January 2011, scoring 11 in 17 Serie A games in the second half of the season, he has since found the going tough in his second season, only finding the net 8 times in a tumultuous campaign. Balotelli has had disciplinary issues hanging over him with both Prandelli and his biggest believer in football (Roberto Mancini) saying that it’s impossible to trust him, still the young man possesses great talent and his boss will he hoping he finds some maturity this summer.

For those of you who watched Italy’s qualification with interest the starring shows of Antonio Cassano will not have gone unnoticed, finally the player that never was appeared we thought, only for a very worrying health concern to arise. Italy will hope that doesn’t impinge on him this summer. ‘Fantantonio’ on his game is one of the most delightful players around, a velvet touch, he makes the ball move in ways only a snake charmer makes a snake move. Cassano is what football should be about, entertainment, whether it be off the pitch or on it, there is never a dull moment around, a player who never fulfilled his potential, but with a player with so much potential he didn’t to this is arguably his last big chance to do something major, he has the ability – now let’s hope he delivers.

The Italian gameplan will revolve around the creative brilliance of Pirlo and Cassano, these are without doubt the two star individuals of this Italian side. Both full backs are without doubt a massive component as well, with things likely to get congested in the centre due to Italy’s narrow shape, the surging runs from full back (Maggio in particular) will look to supply Italy with that extra width. The influence of their coach Prandelli is another key factor, in international football, it is my opinion that team spirit is of much more importance than at a club level. Prandelli has done a fantastic job in creating a great spirit in the Italian camp and his handling of Cassano has been wonderful, rewards which he has reaped in his performances. The players remain grounded and it suits Italy going into the championships with a lowered expectation, much like the 2006 World Cup.

That night, Clare produced the best team performance of any senior side from the county in the past five years, with the possible exception of the display which prompted their current manager’s arrival on the intercounty scene. I say senior, because like Limerick, Clare hurling’s quiet optimism of recent times has been founded on a series of achievements in the underage ranks which have surpassed anything in recent (Limerick) or even distant (Clare) memory.

Teams like Ard Scoil Ris, the Limerick U-21s of 2011, along with the Clare minors of 2010/2011, and the Clare U-21s of 2009 have populated the hurling landscapes of both counties with outstanding talent. At Fitzgibbon Cup level, the championship winning sides of 2010 (NUIG) and 2011 (UL, defeating LIT) were sprinkled with players from both counties. The epic semi-final clash of 2010 between NUIG and LIT featured fourteen Clare players, with NUIG going on to win the final thanks to an extra-time winner from Clonlara’s John Conlon. The following year, it was Patrickswell’s Tommy O’Brien grabbing a goal with the last act of the game to win an all Limerick final for UL. In surveying the aforementioned landscapes then, it is hard to deny that young, confident, and most importantly, successful players abound in both territories.

Yet both counties are acutely aware of the dangers inherent in that most enticing of sporting delusions – potential. Limerick began the last decade with just the third three-in-a-row in the history of the U21 competition, an astonishing achievement which yielded astonishingly little at senior level, producing perhaps nothing but a sense of expectation which made the failures of the following decade all the more difficult to stomach. In Clare, excitement at this bumper crop certainly bubbles beneath the surface, but chastening championship defeats at the hands of Dublin and Galway in the last two seasons have driven any notions of entitlement to a deep and early grave. Any Clare fan who sat through the massacre of Salthill could not be left in any doubt as to the distance yet to be travelled by their young team.

Saturday evening, however, represents a small but hugely significant staging point in that journey. Both sides may see themselves as contenders, worthy of shots at the bigger names in the hurling world, but for the moment at least they are each other’s gatekeepers. Both block the other’s road to better things in a manner not too dissimilar to the young Clare and Limerick teams of the mid-nineties. The platform Limerick want for Hannon, Downes, and Dowling, is the one Clare want for Conlon, O’Connell, and McGrath.

Yes, the main stage calls, and both north and south of the Shannon there are young and talented hurlers who feel they have outgrown the small venues, hurlers who are sick to the teeth of being on the undercard. The experience of having competed with and beaten the best at other levels will do that, and even Pairc Ui Chaoimh, Nowlan Park, and Thurles are glamourous destinations when compared with the provincial tours of the last two or three years. These are hard times though. For generations of Clare and Limerick players, hurling in the spring against the top sides in the country was a normal part of being a Clare or Limerick hurler, but league restructuring has meant those days are no longer. And with Dublin or Galway on their way to 1B next year, that ticket to the top flight is even more valuable for Saturday’s combatants than it was twelve months ago.

In that fixture, it was Limerick who, like in 1994, won the bragging rights but were denied the ultimate prize. In 1995 Clare won those bragging rights back and landed a much bigger prize as well. What odds a repeat of history? Well, narrowly favourable if you believe the bookmakers. Clare’s superiority in the opening clash (like Limerick’s last year) was such that it would be hard to pick against them. It is very much a question of how much of last year’s lustre has returned to the Limerick squad in the intervening period, and the extent to which Clare’s victory in February was based on physical, as opposed to technical or tactical, superiority.

In any case, it would be nice to close by saying that regardless of who takes the honours on Saturday night, that both sets of talented young players are likely to meet each other on bigger and better days in the years ahead. But such statements, while pleasant sign offs, are largely meaningless. Progress in this game are hard earned and gradual, and what you can’t win next week you are in no way entitled to next year. Ger Loughnane once said that while competitions in the spring don’t matter all that much, days come along for teams that really do. The two squads who will do battle at the weekend have accolades and medals that in the fullness of time will easily push a second tier league trinket out of their CV. But for the time being, it is hard to imagine anything that could matter more. Another year in the wilderness is the last thing either side wants, but one of them is going to get it. To the winner the spoils, and vae victis.

written by Watch the Break

Neil Lennon reverted to what appears to be the first choice back four today after experimenting with new full backs and a different centre back partnership in the last couple of weeks. The Rogne-Wilson axis was less authoritative than recent games with Kilmarnock finding ways to exploit Rogne’s lack of pace and Wilson’s less physical attributes.

From the beginning of the game the two centre backs looked uncertain in dealing with balls played in behind. Within the first ten minutes three balls had been hit over Rogne’s head with both centre backs scampering behind to retrieve them. The dominance that Rogne usually enjoys in the air was tempered by the fact that Killie were smart enough to play it behind him – exploiting that area, forcing Wilson to track way out of position.

Wilson’s casualness

For the first spell of the game these threats didn’t develop into anything for Kilmarnock but by the half hour mark Wilson’s composure was beginning to look more like casualness and a couple of harmless situations escalated into panic among the Celtic defence. Firstly a straightforward flick through eluded Wilson completely and the defender had to recover with an admittedly impressive lunge to knock the ball to safety.

Ten minutes later and the same sort of desperate stretch (this time after some more indecisiveness or blatant sleepwalking) was less successful with Wilson’s efforts to cover his own error merely diverting the ball into a dangerous area and Heffernan was played through on goal only to be denied by alert goalkeeping from Forster.

With the second half less than five minutes old Celtic gifted Kilmarnock their best chance of the game apart from the goal. A determined run by Shields resulted with the ball dropping at Wilson’s feet at the edge of the Celtic penalty area and the defender half-heartedly poked the ball straight against the Kilmarnock midfielder instead of clearing the ball, and man with it if required, into the stand. Wilson was perhaps unfortunate that the ball broke so kindly for Shiels but nothing should have been left to chance in a situation like that. And whatever misfortune he endured was more than compensated for by the nervous finish wide by Shiels.

Counter Attacks

Celtic were vulnerable throughout the game to quick breaks from Kilmarnock and only some errant passing, a (rare) generous refereeing decision to stop play for a head knock and some good recovery work from Adam Matthews in particular prevented the underdogs from converting promising opportunities into gilt-edged chances.

Brown, an excellent performer on the day, was caught in possession after nine minutes and the break exposed Celtic’s centre backs with both full-backs caught slightly ahead of play. The defensive situation was far from straightforward with Rogne and Wilson both needing to make a decision on who to pick up but the result was a disjointed effort at collaboration in the still image below. Rogne was attracted to the ball, as he tends to be even with runners outside, while Wilson opted to sweep behind but covered neither the wide player nor the infinitely more dangerous runner through the centre. Only a poorly executed through ball from Harkins to Shiels saved the day on that occasion.

Later on in the first half Harkins attracted Wilson to the ball near Celtic’s left touchline, slipped it past him and angled a diagonal ball over Rogne’s head to Heffernan but Matthews made up ground on the flight of the ball and Celtic were able to crowd the Kilmarnock striker and force the ball back to the goalkeeper.

On its own that situation was not alarming but it was indicative of a general vulnerability at the heart of Celtic’s defence on the break, and like other teams in recent weeks, Kilmarnock were happy to target the area behind Rogne for long balls but they were clever enough to remove Wilson from the equation first.

The Goal

It was no huge surprise when the Kilmarnock goal came and that in itself told its own story. Celtic turned the ball over in attack with a Matthews cross blocked at the edge of the box and Kilmarnock broke downfield at a leisurely pace. Celtic’s defence had plenty of time to regroup by the time of the goal however and nobody can point fingers at being caught out of position as an excuse for their defending.

The first problem comes from Ki’s lack of awareness or lack of effort in tracking the run of Lee Johnson across the face of the goal. The Korean midfielder allowed Johnson to run across the back of him and was too slow to react to the ball down the channel from Gordon who had been at least held up by Matthews.

Ki’s starting position is poor, as illustrated in the image above, but it’s his reaction times that are more troubling. The ball from Gordon requires Johnson to run across the face of Ki and he manages to achieve that with ease, putting a yard’s daylight between the two players over the space of 10 yards. Pace isn’t Ki’s great strength but he’s quicker than that when he is switched on and this was more a lapse in concentration than any physical deficiency.

As the ball comes across, the marking in the penalty area, zonal or man-to-man, is very clear. Wanyama has the front post and Heffernan while Wilson has responsibility for the back post and Van Tornhout. Neil Lennon spoke after the game about not allowing crosses to pass between the defenders and the goalkeeper and his initial reading (without seeing a replay) is correct. If the ball is pulled back to a runner from midfield then the defenders have been taken out of the game. A cross along the 6 yard box should be there to be headed away however and it’s ball-watching and a huge lapse in concentration from Wilson that allows his man to ghost past him to head home.

The flight of the cross takes both Forster and Wanyama out of the equation, so credit to Johnson for angling the ball into a dangerous area. But Wilson is perfectly positioned to take one or two steps and head the ball over the bar. He’s not even required to jump. He opts to stand still instead and the Belgian striker merely has to walk forward to nod the ball home and win the match for Kilmarnock.

The image below shows Wilson and Van Tornhout’s starting and finishing positions superimposed onto the same image. It actually presents the defender in a relatively favourable light as he took a couple of steps towards the ball just as the ball drifted past him and he actually ended up in relative proximity to the striker as he was heading home.

It is clear however that Wilson was in the perfect starting position to deal with the cross and he simply didn’t make enough (or any) effort to attack the ball and avert the danger.

Blame:

Wilson: 70% – The majority of the blame lies with the defender. He has one job to do and he fails to even attempt it, nevermind carry it out properly. Perhaps the presence of Rogne alongside him has allowed Wilson to forget about the basics of defending crosses too much because of the Norwegian’s aerial ability. Either way this was a dreadful lapse in an overall poor performance from the centre back.

Ki: 30% – Ki’s defending for the goal is simply poor from beginning to end. He allows Johnson to drift goalside for no reason, he fails to spot the danger of the ball down the channel and then reacts too slowly when that pass is played. He brings many positive attributes to the role of defensive midfielder from a possession point of view but he really needs to work on his protection for the back four if he wants to hold down that role with any regularity.

A long ball thumped forward by Arnason should have caused few problems for Celtic’s back four, all of whom were in decent position. As has recently become standard, Kelvin Wilson stepped back from the aerial challenge to allow Rogne contest the ball with Fallon while Wilson covered in behind for any flick-ons. Blackman was well placed goalside of Vernon (who was Fallon’s closest support) and Mulgrew and Lustig were both in position to deal with any runs from deeper areas.

As the ball reached Fallon, Rogne decided not to compete in the air presumably as he felt he could only win the ball by fouling the Aberdeen striker. He did the right thing therefore in dropping off with Wilson to ensure no danger could come from any flick on from Fallon. The two Celtic centre backs in both the image above and the next image below are at least anticipating danger and their body position suggests they’re posed to react to any threat. The same cannot be said of Blackman or Mulgrew (or Lustig to a lesser extent). The left back is too square against Vernon allowing his man a chance to run off him, Mulgrew has slowed to a walk and Lustig is somewhere in between a stroll and a jog.

Fallon flicks the ball into the only area that can cause Celtic a problem but it should still be Blackman’s ball. The angle takes it away from Kelvin Wilson and Vernon reacts far quicker than Blackman to the ball breaking into space. The young defender is probably surprised by Vernon’s pace off the mark but he needed to read the danger better, should have reacted quicker and at the very least should have forced his opponent to run outside him. Instead Blackman drifts towards the touchline and not only does Vernon reach the ball first, he is inside Blackman so doesn’t have to beat him to get through on goal.

By this stage the situation is looking more ominous for Celtic. Rae has moved ahead of Lustig who was slow to react to the flick-on and Charlie Mulgrew has barely moved (out of picture now) from his original position. Rae has set off on a run of his own through the middle and Fallon is now joining up with play.

Celtic importantly still have 3 defenders in decent position however and are helped by Fallon’s decision to offer Vernon an outlet to his right, which brings Blackman back into the game. The obvious danger area is to the other side (shaded in red below) but unfortunately Thomas Rogne fails to recognise this and moves inside to assist Wilson who has held up Vernon by getting goalside.

Vernon, to his credit, is patient and delays his pass to Rae sufficiently to ensure Rogne is taken out of the game by taking up a narrow position. The pass plays Rae slightly wide of the goal but doesn’t allow Lustig any chance to make up the ground he lost earlier on and Rae is given a clear shooting chance.

Blackman’s problems continue with his deflection on Rae’s scuffed shot. The ball was travelling wide of the goal and the left back dangled a leg at it to divert it past Forster who stood no chance despite getting a hand to the ball. Apportioning too much blame to the deflection would be harsh but there’s a world of difference between a diving block that cannons the ball goalwards against a dangled leg that can only ever cause a goalkeeper problems. Blackman probably has little time to retract his leg despite the tame shot but should be putting in a stronger block regardless.

Culpability:

Wilson: 0% – Wilson is everpresent in the images above but can take no responsibility for the goal. He sweeps behind Fallon as is his job and while he is beaten to the flick by Vernon, he reacts much sharper than Blackman and does his job in checking Vernon and forcing him to play it to his support.

Mulgrew: 20% – Mulgrew was goalside of Rae to begin with and hardly moved once Aberdeen won the initial header. He can be forgiven for losing a race back from midfield if he’s caught unaware but he showed no inclination to react at all so never gave himself a chance to recover. Not his natural role so can be forgiven the lapse but Rae was primarily his responsibility.

Rogne: 20% – No blame for not contesting the header as every ball can’t be won in the air and Rogne’s decision making in considering when to attack a ball in the air has been impeccable in recent weeks. He takes up a good position beside Wilson after the flick on, albeit a little slower than his centre back partner to get back, and perhaps it’s this slight delay that denies him the chance to take stock of the situation and assess the danger area. The area covering the right hand side of the goal is his natural responsibility and by the time Vernon is bringing the ball inside it is obvious that the danger is from the runs of Rae and Fallon – not Vernon himself. A couple of steps to his right and Aberdeen would have been forced to try and hold onto possession, but his positioning facilitated the straightforward pass to play Rae through on goal.

Lustig: 20% – Not dissimilar to Mulgrew in getting caught flat-footed in the race back from the centre of the pitch. In his favour he did at least make the effort to get back and if the ball had been held up a little longer he may well have made up the distance. Unlike Mulgrew however, he had a direct positional responsibility for that area however and though the goal came from a central midfielder, it came in his area of the pitch.

Blackman: 40% – Probably deserves a little more of the blame but there’s only 40% left after sharing some blame among the others. He got caught flat-footed by Vernon, who did show good pace to get to the ball first. It was naive defending not only to react slowly but he allowed Vernon to get inside him and even to muscle him out of the way so he could continue on his path across the goal. The deflection owed a bit more to misfortune but it was the type of timid effort to block a shot that all too frequently ends up in a goal. Forster’s frustration at this interference was plain for all to see.

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Hisaabaat – This Dermot Weld trained juvenile has been a model of consistency since his switch to hurdling.  After unseating his rider early on in his debut at Leopardstown (good) in December he finished a 1 length second to Sportsmaster at Naas (soft to heavy) in early January.  A week later he contested the Grade 3 Juvenile Hurdle at Punchestown (soft to heavy) where he had to settle for the runners up spot behind Willie Mullins well regarded Ut De Sivola, his cause not helped by a mistake at the last.  Not surprisingly he was sent off favourite for his next start at Leopardstown (good) at the end of January but again had to settle for second place behind another Willie Mullins horse Darroun.  He finally got his head in front in some style by taking the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown (good to soft) in February where he was delivered late to beat the well regarded Shadow Catcher by 1 ¾ lengths, benefitting from a last flight mistake by that rival.  Interesting he was fitted with first time blinkers and these certainly help to sharpen him up.  That win booked his place in the Triumph Hurdle but one gets the impression that he may just be better on a flatter track and personally I would be concerned about his ability to get up the Cheltenham Hill.

Shadow Catcher – Gordon Elliot looks to a have a live contender for the Triumph Hurdle in the shape of this 80 rated ex flat recruit.  He made an eyecatching debut at Punchestown (heavy) towards the end of December where he beat the well regarded Darroun by ½ length.  The runner up has gone on the flanked the form since.  On his final start in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown (good to soft) in February he travelled and jumped ominously well until making a mistake at the last.  He never won beyond a mile and a quarter on the flat and I would be concerned about his stamina on a track like Cheltenham.  Having said that, if he is held up longer before delivering his challenge it will certainly help his cause in this regard. 

Baby Mix – So impressive was Hinterland on his British debut that this Tom George French recruit was sent off an unconsidered 14-1 shot on his British debut at Cheltenham (good) in December.  He belied those odds in beating the 141 rated Hinterland by an easy 7 lengths.  This was an awesome debut and a performance good enough to win most renewals of the Triumph as the runner up looked to have run his race.   He was sent off the 7-4f to confirm that initial impression on his penultimate start in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January, but trailed in a well beaten last of six runners.  That run was too bad to be true and his cause was not help by his early race keenness and a couple of mistakes.  He showed that run to be all wrong on his final start where he impressively landed the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton (good) in February by 2 lengths from the high class Sadler’s Risk.  This performance propelled him back to the head of the Triumph Market and illustrated the importance of a decent surface to his chances.

Hollow Tree – Hailing from the Donald McCain yard this Beat Hollow gelding was an unexposed 80 rated on the level.  He justified odds on when making an impressive debut at Bangor (good) in September.  His sights were set considerably higher on his next start in the Grade 2 Triumph Trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November, where he finished a 3 length second to Hinterland (gave 4 pounds).  He would have finished closer but a mistake 3 out but it was encouraging the way he battled and rallied thereafter.  On his penultimate start he capture the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow (soft) in fine style where he beat the 139 Countrywide Flame by 2 ½ lengths with a further a 11 lengths back to Secret Edge in third.  His final run came in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January where he finished 3 ½ lengths third to the classy Grumeti.  He is an admirable sort who will be suited by the end to end gallop of the Triumph but maybe just below the class required to win this race.

Ut De Sivola – This Robin Des Champs gelding is a half-brother to Tom George’s classy hurdler Sivola De Sivola.  Made an emphatic winning debut for Willie Mullins at Clonmel (heavy) in December over 2m where he was punted like defeat was out of the question.  Unsurprisingly he started a warm order for a Grade 3 at Punchestown (soft to heavy) on his next start but was made to work hard by the Dermot Weld trained Hisaabaat.  He won by just over 3 lengths, benefitting from a mistake by the runner up at the final flight.  Hisaabaat managed to comprehensively reverse the form in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown (good to soft) in February.  Ut De Sivola never jumped with any of the fluency that characterised his earlier victories and was struggling from an early stage.  It maybe that he found the ground too quick and this would be an obvious concern for the Festival.

Darroun – This well bred flat recruit was an expensive purchase by Rich Ricci at the start of the year.  He finished a ½ length second to the well regarded Shandow Catcher of Gordon Elliot at Punchestown (heavy) in November.  He built upon that experience at Leopardstown (good) in January where he found plenty for pressure to run out a comfortable 1 ¼ length winner from the useful Hisaabaat.  The form got a massive boast with Hisaabaat winning the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile on his latest start.  Darroun seemed to appreciate the better ground here and looks most progressive.

Sadler’s Risk – This Philip Hobbs trained runner made a striking debut over hurdles with a 17 length victory at Kempton (good) in January.  This propelled him to the head of many books for the Triumph Hurdle.  He was a high class 12f horse on the flat when trained by Mark Johnston.  His final start came in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton (good) in February where he finished a 2 length runner up to Baby Mix.  A speed track like Kempton was never going to play to the strengths of this thorough stayer and it was encouraging how he rallied over the last two flights to get so close to the winner, who in truth was probably idling after being in front too long.  Sadler’s Risk looks tailored made for Cheltenham and it is not hard to see him possibly reversing form with the winner on a track that would play more to his strengths.

Grumeti – Trained by Alan King this 83 rated flat horse was a 100k purchase by Max McNeill who sponsors the yard and whose colours are carried by Walkon and the ill fated Mille Chief.  He sprung to Triumph prominence with a victory against older horses in a handicap at Taunton (good to soft) towards the end of December.  He beat the well regarded Ted Spread (winner since) by 14 lengths but was in receipt of 13 pounds.  He was sent off 8-15f for his next start back in his own age group at Newbury (soft) in January where he had the race in safekeeping until flicking the top bar at the second last and crumbled upon landing.  He shot to the forefront of the Triumph market post race such was the impression that he created.  His next race came in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January where he was awarded the race in the stewards room after Pearl Swan (gave 3 pounds) leaned into him and bumped him on the run to the finish line.  Grumeti comes out of this race with a huge amount of credit as he was in the vanguard throughout while Pearl Swan more of less had the race set up for him and was the recipient of a tactical astute ride from Ruby Walsh.  Connections decided to give him one more run at Kempton in Febraury in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novice Hurdle, eager to give Robert Thornton experience of riding Grumeti prior to the Festival.  He comfortably held off the challenge of Dodging Bullets (received 7 pounds) by 1 ½ lengths, the pair well clear.  He now goes into the Triumph with a leading chance of extending Alan King’s fine record in the race.

Urbain De Sivola – This Nick Williams trained juvenile unseated his rider on his racecourse debut at Market Rasen (good) in September.  He was unlucky not to open his account on his next start at Chepstow (good) in October, where he held every chance until sprawling upon landing over the last flight of hurdles.  On his penultimate start at Newbury (good to soft) in November he ran out a comfortable 10 length winner from the now rated 141 Ranjaan.  The third and fourth home that day have won their subsequent starts.  On his final start in a Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f at Taunton in February he had his limitations somewhat exposed in deadheating with the 119 rated Ifyouletmefinish (gave 2 pounds).  Based upon this run it is hard to see him winning the Triumph.

Balder Succes – After making a winning British debut over 2m at Plumpton (heavy) in January, Alan King stated that he did not think that this once raced ex French recruit was a Triumph horse due to his in experience.  In light of subsequent performances, he has had to change his mind.  After a comfortable win in a three runner affair at Ascot (good to soft) over 2m towards the end of January, Balder Succes was thrown in against his elders in a Novice Hurdle over 2m at the same venue (good to soft) in February.  As with his previous efforts he travelled and jumped like a very decent horse and was not extended in beating Captain Sunshine by 7 lengths with the well regarded Hazy Tom well beaten back in fourth.  He is now officially rated 147 on the back of that success and justifiably holds a prominent position at the top of the Triumph market.  Alan King expects him to improve further for better ground.

Pearl Swan – Made a winning debut for Paul Nicholl’s yard in a novice hurdle at Taunton (good to soft) in January where he travelled and jumped well in running out a 4 length winner.  While this was an impressive debut it did not scream Triumph Hurdle winner.  Nevertheless, connections decided to step him up in class by contesting a Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January.  Held up under a very patience ride by Ruby Walsh, he came through late to beat Grumeti by a nose, but later lost the race in the Stewards room, having leaned into and slightly bumped the runner up on the run to the finish after jumping the last.  The performance may slightly flatter Pearl Swan as he was the recipient of a great tactical ride by Ruby Walsh.  Having said that, the Triumph will be run in a similar fashion to this race and Pearl Swan was giving Grumeti 3 pounds and easily comes out of the race as the best horse.

Verdict – Since the introduction of the Fred Winter seven years ago this has become a much easier race to analyse with all seven winners holding a prominent position in the market.  Recent trends highlight the fact that this is still a test of stamina and it pays to focus on those horses that have run over 1m 4f on the level.  Class is also important and recent winners have had an 80+ rating on the level.  The Adonis has become an important trial with the last two winners, Zarkandar and Soldatino not making their racecourse appearance until winning this race.  This is a fascinating renewal and a strong case could easily be made for up to a half dozen runners.  The English look to hold the upper hand and I feel that Pearl Swan is capable of landing back to back renewals for Paul Nicholls.  He looks a solid each way proposition at 8-1 in a race destined to be run to suit.

County Hurdle

Raya Star (rated 143) – Alan King has always held this son of Milan in high regard and this belief has been borne out so far this year.  He began the season by taking a Wetherby (good) Handicap at the end of October in the manner of a well handicapped horse off a mark of 120.  He was raised twelve pounds for that effort and showed further improvement by taking third behind the classy Rock On Ruby in the Listed Gerry Feilden at Newbury (good to soft) in November.  He was beaten 10 ½ lengths but pulled well clear of the fourth in a competitive field.  He was raised another two pounds and went into the Ladbroke at Ascot (soft) in December with a leading chance.  With Wayne Hutchison deputising for the injured Robert Thornton, he made steady headway from the back to take up the running approaching the last from where he stayed on well to hold the challenge of Rigidity by ½ length.  He was raised five pounds for this effort but ran a great trial for the County on his final start in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (good to soft) where he finished 1 ¼ lengths third to the high class Zarkandar.  It was a fine effort from this progressive young hurdler as the race was run very slowly and this would have been against Raya Star.

Olofi (rated 136) – Tom George has enjoyed a fine year and in Olofi he may have a horse capable of adding to that success.  He began the year by finishing a 2 ½ length runner up to Brampour in the Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November.  He finished very strongly up the hill and would have gone closer but for meeting some interference on the run down to the last.  He was fitted with cheekpieces and a tongue tie for the first time and these certainly brought about improvement.  The winner is now rated 162 after finishing third in the Grade 1 International Hurdle on his next start.  Not surprising then that Olofi was sent off favourite for a Class B Handicap at Ascot (soft) in December off a six pound higher mark of 136 on his next start.  He was travelling ominously well until fallen at the second last and must rank an unlucky loser.  He attempted to make amends on his final start in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (good to soft) where he finished 4 ¾ lengths fifth to the high class Zarkandar.  He was keen in the early part of the race where his cause was not helped by the rather pedestrian pace.  It was still a good trial for the County and provided he gets the searching gallop he needs is more than capable of staking a claim.

Citizenship (rated 128) – Formerly in the care of Gordon Elliot, Citizenship was switxhed to Jessica Harrington at the start of the season.  After finishing down the field in a Maiden Hurdle at Down Royal (soft) at the start of November he won a Novice Handicap at Punchestown (soft) later that month easily off a mark of 97.  He showed further progressing by taken third behind Staying Article in the Class B Bar One Racing Handicap at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) at the start of December off a mark of 112.  That was followed by a ¾ length second off a mark of 114 to Cass Bligh at Leopardstown (good) over Christmas in a similar contest.  With the stable in much better form he went into the ultra-competitive Boylesport.com Class B Hurdle at Leopardstown (good) in January with a leading chance.  After a mistake at the first, he soon found himself well down the field and entering the straight there was a wall of horses in front of him.  However, appreciating the better ground and showing a telling turn of foot he gradually mowed down the opposition to run out a 1 ¼ length winner.  That was off a mark of 118 and the Irish handicapper has raised him 10 pounds for that effort.  One gets the feeling that he is still ahead of the handicapper and as he encounters the better spring ground may well be up to winning another big handicap.

Get Me Out Of Here (rated 155) – This mercurial Jonjo O’Neill trained and JP McManus owned gelding has been the subject of a fair bit of controversy during the past couple of years but there is little doubt that Get Me Out Of Here is a very talented sort on a going day.  He made a promising return at Haydock (good to soft) over 2m 4f in November where he finished a 6 length fifth to Any Given Day.   He showed he retained plenty of ability on his next start in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good) in December where he was a clear 1 ¾ length second to the high class Oscar Whisky.  His final start came in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle over 2m 1f off a mark of 151, where he finished an unlucky 1 ¼ length second to the high class Zarkandar.  He won this handicap off 135 as a novice and where it not for been badly hampered 2 out by the fall of Darlan he may well have regained his crown under an inspired ride by the excellent 7 pound claimer Maurice Lenihan.  His Festival record reads 22 and he should make a bold attempt to go one place better in this year’s County Hurdle off a 3 pound higher mark than last year, particularly if reunited with his talented claimer.

Empire Levant (rated 140) – This Alex Ferguson owned and Paul Nicholls trained runner was a facile win of a Class C Handicap at Newbury (good to soft) off a mark of 128.  Connections decided to run him two days later at the same track in the Listed Gerry Feilden Hurdle where unsurprisingly he was sent off a warm order despite the strong line-up.  He was able to avoid a penalty for his earlier success and so could run off 128.  He travelled strongly to two out where he was pressed by his classy stablemate Rock On Ruby eventually going down by 6 lengths.  The form of this race is strong with the winner just getting touched off in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and the third Raya Star going on to win the Ladbroke on his next start.  He was a bit disappointing on his final start in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (good to soft) where he finished well down the field.  He was badly hampered by the fall of Darlan at the second last but looked to be held at the time.

Verdict – Top weights have a dismal record in this race and it pays to focus of those lightly weighted runners, where six of the last seven winners have come in the rating bracket of 128-135, with last year’s winner Final Approach (139) been the exception.  Five year olds have won five of the last seven renewals while Willie Mullins and Paul Nichols have won five of the last eight renewals.  The two best trials for this race have been the Totesport Hurdle at Newbury in February and the Betfair Hurdle at Leopardstown in January.  Citizenship ran a great trial in the Betfair Hurdle and should he get in here will run off a light weight.  He looks very classy and is the 12-1 each way selection.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Boston Bob – Formerly with Howard Johnson, this Graham Wiley owned son of Bob Back was switched to the Willie Mullins yard at the beginning of the year.  He won his maiden hurdle at Navan (good to soft) in the manner of a 4-11 shot.  He contested the Grade 1 Navan Hurdle on his latest start over 2m 4f in December where he stayed on strongly from 3 out to burst the Mount Benbulben bubble by 4 ½ lengths.  His final start came in the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions over 2m 4f at Leopardstown (heavy) in January where he beat Lyreen Legend by 2 ½ lengths giving the runner up and a high class field 10 pounds in the process.  As with his penultimate run, it was a case of the further he went the better he looked.  Boston Bob looks to have stamina in abundance has a leading chance in the Albert Bartlett.  My biggest concern is his ability to be as effective on quicker ground.  It was noticeable that he hung left when encountering a sounder surface in a Hexham bumper last year.

Sea of Thunder – This Charles Byrnes trained son of Old Vic runs in the Gigginstown House colours is a half-brother to Jessie Harrington’s former high class 2miler Mac’s Joy.  Sea of thunder was stepped up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett Grade 2 at Cheltenham (good) in December.  He was in the process of running out a thoroughly convincing winner until taking a crashing fall at the last flight of hurdles.  This run was far better than anything he had achieved to date and he obviously benefitted from the better ground and step up in trip.  His final start came in the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions over 2m 4f at Leopardstown (heavy) in January where he was a credible 15 length fifth to the very high class Boston Bob (gave 10 pounds).  Sea Of Thunder was never going to be suited by the very heavy going but it was important that he showed no ill effects from his Cheltenham experience.

Rocky Creek – This soft ground Irish point to point winner was purchased by the Stewart and Johnson families at the beginning of the year and sent to Paul Nicholls.  He was well backed to make a winning start over hurdles at Exeter (good) over 2m 6f in November but was beaten ¼ length by Allthekingshorses.  The winner has let the form down subsequently, but the third and fourth have gone on to flank the form well.  He looked like he would benefit for a step up to three miles and this came to pass at Doncaster (good to soft) in January where he ran out a 3 ¾ length winner over the well regarded Gulinbursti (gave 4 pounds) in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett.  He seemed to appreciate the softer ground here and quicker ground at the Festival would be a concern.

Brindisi Breeze - Lucinda Russell looks to have a proper horse on her hands in the shape of this winning Irish pointer.  He made his debut under rules in a Musselburgh Bumper (good) in November where he was beating a head after pulling very hard throughout the first half of the race.  He was fortunate to make a winning debut over hurdles at Kelso (soft) over 2m7f in December as he looked booked for second until Netminder (impressive winner on next start) made an awful mistake at the last and lost all chance.  As with his Bumper run Brindisi Breeze was very keen early on while tracking the leaders.  Connections decided to employ frontrunning tactics for his penultimate start at Newcastle (soft) over 3m in January.  Brindisi Breeze relished the opportunity of making his own pace and he ran out a very impressive 13 length winner.  He continued on an upward curve by taking the Grade 2 Prestige Novice Hurdle at Haydock (heavy) in February by 12 lengths from Harry Topper with some well regarded types strung out behind.  This booked his ticket for the Albert Bartlett where he must have a leading chance.  He has benefitted enormously from front running tactics which has helped him to settle better and which suits his fluent hurdling technique.  The biggest concern for his supporters is how he will handle the quicker ground but he was unfortunate not to make a winning debut on such ground in November.

Mount Benbulben – After been purchased by Barry Connell, Mount Benbulben was moved to Gordon Elliot’s yard.  This high class bumper horse made a rather in auspicious start to his hurdling career when slipping up on the level at Galway in October.  He showed no ill effects of that experience by opening his account on his next start over 2m 2f at Thurles (soft/heavy) in November where he readily accounted for Golanbrook by 2 ½ lengths.  He was stepped up to Grade 2 company for his next start in the Monksfield Hurdle over 2m 4f at Navan (soft/heavy) towards the end of November where he found plenty for pressure to wear down the gallant Rebel Fitz (gave 3 pounds) by 1 ½ lengths.  He was sent off the 5-6f to land the Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle on his final start over 2m 4f at Navan (soft/heavy) in December.  In a change of tactics, connections decided to make all and Mount Benbulben jumped out to his right throughout, a tendency that was not evident on his penultimate start.  He had no answer to the very high class Boston Bob once tackled over the last, eventually trailing in 4 ½ lengths behind that rival.  One has to believe that Mount Benbulben did not show his true form in this race and that a reversion to hold up tactics will see him in a much better light.  Of more pressing concern is the fact that the only time he has run on ground described better than soft he was beaten into fourth in a bumper, thus his ability to handle a quicker surface must be taking on trust.

Verdict –Six of the last seven winners had won at the track beforehand, highlighting the importance of course form to this test.   Not surprising then that the two best trials for this race have been the 2m 5f race at the November Paddy Power meeting (won this year by Fingal Bay) and the 3m race at the December meeting (won by Deireadh Re but Sea of Thunder fell at last with race won).

Boston Bob looks banker material at 5-1 if turning up here in preference to the Neptune.  Any doubts about his ability to handle this quicker ground are offset by the step up in trip.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Long Run – Last year’s King George and Gold Cup heroine started this year’s campaign by suffering an 8 length defeat to a very fit Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) in November.  This defeat was not totally unexpected as he was beaten off a mark of 158 in the previous year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and was expected to improve measurably for the run.  He surrendered his King George crown to Kauto Star at Kempton (good to soft) in December in a slowly run race where the winner was allowed to dictate matters from the front.  Long run was doing all his best work at the end and in all probability would have won well over an extra couple of furlongs.  In last year’s Gold Cup he looked outpaced at the three mile mark but stayed on relentlessly and passed the older brigade to record an emphatic victory.  He returned to winning ways on his final start in the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury (good to soft) in February where he beat Burton Port (received 10 pounds) by ½  length.  He jumped really well throughout off a good pace set by The Giant Bolster with his Jockey only having to get serious with the winner after the last.  It was an ideal prep for the Gold Cup and this performance confirmed his status as the one to beat in the Gold Cup especially in a year where genuine challengers look thin enough on the ground.

Kauto Star – The greatest staying chaser of his generation has returned to something like his best form this year at the age of 11/rising 12.  He took a crashing fall in the 2010 Gold Cup from which he was lucky to survive and this in part may explain some of his below par efforts during the 2011 season.  Connections had him cherry ripe for his return in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) and employing front running tactics ran out a convincing 8 length winner from Long Run.  He showed his ability to maintain that level of performance when recapturing the King George at Kempton (good to soft) in December for his younger foe.  Again he was ridden in the vanguard and his impeccable jumping allowed him to steal a march on Long Run, the pair 17 lengths clear of the third home Captain Chris.  He will definitely run his race in the Gold Cup but has little chance of beaten Long Run over the extra couple of furlongs in the Gold Cup.  Looks to have place prospects at best.

Burton Port – Nicky Henderson’s talented and admirable chaser began last season by finishing 1 ¼ lengths behind Diamond Harry (received 1 pound) in the Hennessy at Newbury.  Unfortunately he picked up a tendon injury in that race and was put away for the season thereafter.  He made a belated seasonal return in the Grade 2 Denman Chase over 3m at Newbury (good to soft) in February where he was a fast finishing ½ length runner up to his very high class stable mate Long Run (gave 10 pounds).  He was a cracking effort and evidence that his ability was still intact.  Post-race connections stated that his homework was superior to anything he done hitherto.  He booked his place in the Gold Cup with this performance where the extra 2 ½ furlongs will be to his advantage.  In addition he will have Barry Geraghty aboard which is a considerable plus.  His last five runs have been at Graded level where his form figures read 12122.  He will have to improve again to challenge Long Run but is open to that kind of improvement, Barry Geraghty remarking that he took a big blow twice in the race.

Weird Al – Formerly trained by Ian Williams he switched to Donald McCain’s yard at the beginning of the year after suffering a season to forget during 2010/2011.  He showed that he retained plenty of the ability he had displayed during his Novice Chase campaign of 2009/2010 when winning the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby (good) in October on his debut for his new yard, comfortably beating Time For Rupert by 3 ½ lengths.  He stepped up to Grade 1 company for his latest run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) in November.  He ran a creditable race in finishing a 10 length third to Kauto Star.  He probably ran slightly flat here after his earlier effort in the Charlie Hall.  Connections feel that he is a much better horse fresh and with that in mind has been put away for the Gold Cup in March.  He has a good record at the track with two victories from three runs and will appreciate the better spring ground.

Quel Esprit – This Willie Mullins trained runner had a novice chase career to forget last year falling twice and unseating his rider on his final start.  Despite looking exceeding well handicapped, connections declined the opportunity to exploit what appeared on the face of it a very workable mark in order to pitch him in at the highest level for his seasonal debut.  This was in the Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown (good to soft) in February.  He was given an uncontested lead which allowed him to get into a nice jumping rhythm, running out a 2 length winner.  He looked to be tiring over the last and in all honesty it was the poorest renewal of this great race in a very long time with the top rated horse China Rock only rated 154.  The fact that the 132 rated 11yo Treacle was only beaten 7 ½ lengths leaves the impression that this race was well below Grade 1 standard.

Diamond Harry – Nick Williams charge was an ultra impressive winner of last year’s Hennessy off a mark of 152.  He unfortunately missed the rest of the year after picking up a slight tendon injury in the run up to last year’s Festival.  He made his eagerly awaited return in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) in November but finished 18 lengths in arrears of Kauto Star.  He possibly paid the penalty for taken on the winner up front.  He did not fare much better in his penultimate start in the Grade 2 Argento Chase at Cheltenham in January.  After travelling well to 4 out he soon beat a retreat, ultimately trailing in a well beaten fifth.  Noel Fehily identified an issue with Diamond Harry’s breathing post race and he was sent for a corrective wind operation.  There is a school of thought that Diamond Harry does not act around Cheltenham.  However his record at the track is quite respectable with form figures of 113P5.  Burton Port is being identified as a genuine contender for the Gold Cup but one must remember that Diamond Harry gave him over a stone and a comfortable 2 ½ length beating in the 2009/2010 Fixed Brush Hurdle.  Should the wind operation prove effective there will be much worse 40-1 chances.

Midnight Chase – This Neil Mulholland has become something of a peoples champion where his guts and never say die attitude as endeared him to the racing public.  He won the first Grade 2 of his remarkably consistent career by capturing the Argento Chase at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January by 2 ½ lengths from Tidal Bay.  On roads now lead to a second tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup and one would not be surprised to see this 10yo run much better than his fifth place finish last year.  His course record his simply phenomenal 2311151.  The key to this son of Midnight Legend is the ability to dominate from the front off a sound surface, something he could not do this last year with so many prominent runners in the field.  It is a different case this time round and one could easily see him getting the race run to suit.

Synchronised – After an encouraging third in the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock (good to soft) in November, this Jonjo O’ Neill trained runner propelled himself into the Gold Cup picture with success in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase at Leopardstown (good) in December where he ran out a very convincing 8 ½ length winner from Rubi Light.  Prior to this run Synchronised would have been considered more of a mud lark who excels over extreme distances.  It is hard to envisage that he has improved at the age of 9 and in all likelihood this result told us more about the dearth of talent in the Irish staying division.  Synchronised missed his intended engagement in the Hennessey at Leopardstown in February as connections felt he was still not over his Christmas exertions.  It is hard to make a strong case for him winning the Gold Cup as it is not difficult to see him getting outpaced where his lack of fluency over his fences does not help his cause.  At best I could see him possibly staying on to grab a place.

Summary – Midnight Chase and Quel Esprit should ensure a generous gallop which will play to the strengths of Long Run.  Provided he puts in an error free round he is the probable winner but he will never be a betting proposition for me at short prices due to his jockey.  Should Grand Crus turn up here I would have no problem in selecting him at 7-1.  I also can’t resist backing Diamond Harry at 40-1 each way in the hope that his wind operation allows him to show his true capabilities.

Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle

Bourne (rated 135) – Formerly trained on the flat by Luca Cumani where he was rated 97, Bourne was switched to Donal McCain at the beginning of the year to embark on a hurdling career.  He made a promising start in a Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f at Catterick (soft) in October, beating Into Wain (winner on next two starts) by ¾ lengths.  After a couple of disappointing efforts at Musselburgh and Newcastle he showed huge improvement over 2m 4f in a Class B Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (good to soft) in February off a mark of 125 where he made relentless late progress to run out a 3 ½ length winner over the very useful Smad Place with the Lanzarote winner Swincombe Flame back in third.  As with his prior runs his hurdling was less than perfect but he relished the big field and fast pace.  This makes him well equipped to run well at the Festival.  The handicapper has raised him 10 pounds to 135.  He still looks well handicapped in comparison to his flat rating.

Ted Spread (rated135) – Formerly in the care of Mark Tompkins where he was rated 104 and a group winner on the flat, he was switched to Paul Nicholls at the start of the year to begin a hurdling career.  He was a rather disappointing 13 length fourth on his debut at Ascot (good) in November behind Broadbackbob.  However the form of this race has been well advertised since by the winner and runner up Cinders And Ashes.  He was fancied to make amends on his next start at Taunton (good to soft) in December but finished a 14 length second to the high class juvenile hurdler Grumeti (received 13 pounds).  He got off the mark at the third time of asking with a smooth 7 length success over Pascha Bere in a Class C Handicap at Taunton (good to soft) off a mark of 120 at the end of January.  He was fitted with a first time tongue tie and this certainly contributed to this much improved effort.  The handicapper hit him with a 15 pound rise for this win but he still looks very well handicapped in comparison to his flat rating.  All his wins have been of sharp flat tracks and so the galloping undulations of Cheltenham may not be to his liking.

Verdict – Like the Kim Muir this race has been upgraded to a 0-145 race from 0-140.  Two of the last three renewals have been won by second season hurdlers who have demonstrated an ability to handle a big field handicap.  Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race with one winner and many placed efforts.  David Pipe has yet to win the race but Pond House runners have started favourites in two out of the last three renewals and his runners automatically command respect in a race named after his father.  Bourne looks well handicapped and will have the assistance of the very capable Henry Brooke in the saddle.  At 12-1 each way he is selected to provide compensation for the McCain yard after Son Of Flicka’s defeat in this very race last year.  Should Citizenship show up here I would also back him.

Grand Annual

Kid Cassidy (rated144) – Nicky Henderson will be hoping that this JP McManus owned runner will help him land the race named after his late father Johnny.  Kid Cassidy was a classy novice hurdler last season where he was rated 144.  He was sent off long odds on for his chasing debut at Lingfield (good) in November over the minimum trip where he was 18 lengths clear until falling 3 out.  He made amends on his next start at Ludlow (good to soft) in January where he won by 31 lengths hard hell.  A feature of both these runs was how free and keen going Kid Cassidy was which necessitated front running tactics and a departure from how he raced over hurdles.  It was the very same on his final start a week later at Doncaster (good to soft) where he readily cast aside the challenge of the very decent Kumbeshwar by 3 ¾ lengths, he idled somewhat on the run in and so was value for a bit more that the official winning margin.  All his runs to date have been in small fields and he may be in his element in a much bigger field like the Grand Annual where he may also get a lead into the race.  Kid Cassidy possesses a huge engine and if he can settle better and be more consistent in his fencing he looks capable of landing a big prize in not so distant future.

Astracad (rated 145) – Nigel Twiston Davis won the 2010 Grand Annual with Pigeon Island and has another leading contender on his hands in the shape of Astracad who runs in the same colours.  Astracad made a winning chasing debut at Perth (good to soft) over 2m 5f in September.  He could only finish third in a four runner affair on his next start at Aintree (good) in October, finishing 13 ½ lengths behind the high class Champion Court (received 5 pounds).  His sights were raised considerably on his next start at Cheltenham (good to soft) over 2m where he contested the Grade 2 Independent Newspaper Novice Chase.  He was only beaten 7 lengths by the high class Al Ferof with a distance back to the third.  He showed his liking for course and distance on his final start when taking the Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap (good) named in memory of his owner’s late wife, off a mark of 138.  The race looked in safe keeping after taking a commanding lead after the second last but he was headed after the last but rallied gamely to prevail by a head from Rileyev.  I think this is a serious piece of form as he was giving the runner up 11 pounds and back in third there was another well handicapped sort in Martin Keighley’s Havingotascoobydo.

Kumbeshwar (rated 144) – Alan King won the 2009 Grand Annual with the novice Oh Crick and has another likely sort in this Max McNeill owned runner.  Kumbeshwar jumped well in making a winning debut over fences at Hereford (good to soft) in November.  He stepped up to Grade 2 level on his next start at Ascot (soft) over 2m 3f and was a respectable 11 length runner up to Zaynar.  He would have finished much closer but for clouting the 11^th fence.  After justifying long odds on in a three runner affair at Plumpton (heavy) he then cross swords with the high menorah at Kempton (good) in January back over the minimum trip.  After a couple of bad blunders he finished a staying on 3 ¾ length behind the winner.  On his final start in Grade 2 Lightning Novices Chase at Doncaster (good to soft) he could never land a blow on the frontrunning Kid Cassidy.  He was fitted with first time cheekpieces and his jumping was much assured.  One gets the impression that Kumbeshwar will be more at home in a bigger field.   He was just touched off in the Fred Winter at last year’s Festival and looks capable of running a huge race race in the Grand Annual off his mark of 144.  Alan King has stated that he will be fitted with first time blinkers for this assignment.

Toubab (rated 143) – This classy novice hurdler had his attention switched to fences by his trainer Paul Nicholls at the start of the season.  He made a promising start over 2m at Cheltenham (good to firm) in October where he finished a ¾ length runner up to Lancetto.  He looked all over the winner jumping the last but wilted up the hill possibly due to a lack of fitness or a dislike to the stiff uphill nature of the track.  He was odds on to make amends over 2m at Haydock (good) in November but fell three out when travelling best.  He finally got off the mark on his final start over 2m at Sandown (good) in February where he justified odds on favouritism with the minimum of fuss.  That third run was needed to qualify him for the Grand Annual.  The frantic pace of this race will suit this smooth traveller but whether his jumping is experienced enough for a test like this is a genuine concern.

De Boitron (rated 135) – When it comes to handicaps at the Festival few trainers command more respect than Ferdy Murphy.  De Boitron was laid out for this race last year and finished an 11 ½ length fourth to Oiseau De Nuit off a mark of 137.  De Boitron started the year on a mark of 146 and after running down the field in three subsequent starts his mark fell to 133.  On his final start this year at Musselburgh (good to soft) in February he was a real eyecatcher.  Held up out the back he made late headway without ever threathening the well backed winner Tara Royal to finish a 4 ¾ length fourth.  De Boitron needs decent ground to be seen at his best and interestingly his last four racecourse wins have come this side of Christmas with his last three coming in March/April.  He now looks dangerously well handicapped on the best of his form and on a track that he has performed well on in the past must have a decent chance of extended his trainer’s great record in Festival handicaps.

Verdict – Much like the County Hurdle, this is a race where it pays to avoid the top weights and focus on those lightly weighted.  In fact, nine of the last eleven winners fell into the rating bracket of 129-134.  Novices have a good record in this race with three of the last five winners meeting this trend.  Nicky Henderson runners command respect with the race named in honour of his father.  Kid Cassidy is selected at 12-1 each way to end the Festival on a winning note for Nicky Henderson in a race named after his late father. I suspect that Kid Cassidy would have being campaigned with the Arkle in mind but for the presence of Sprinter Sacre.  He looks to have a very bright future and can hopefully take this before going on to achieve greater things next season.

Jewson Novices Chase

For Non Stop – This Nick Williams trained runner was a leading fancy for last season’s Coral Cup and was in the process of running a huge race until falling at the last flight.  While he would not have beaten the winner, he looked sure to be at least placed.  Blessed with plenty of scope it was not surprising to see his attentions switched to the larger obstacles at the beginning of the year.  After falling on his debut in October, he ran the high class Al Ferof to a ¼ length in the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown (good) in December over 2m.  He was stepped up in trip for his next start at Newbury (soft) in December where he finished a 4 length second to Cue Card (gave 7 pounds).  He lost all chance after a momentum stopping blunder at the fourth from home.  Encouragingly he stayed on well thereafter.  This stamina was seen to good effect on his final start in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase over 2m 5f at Newbury (good to soft) in February where he was delivered late off a searching gallop to beat Michael Flips by 2 lengths.  Back in third, beaten 3 lengths was the 143 rated Our Mick which makes me question the substance of the form.  Nevertheless this win marked him as an likely Jewson candidate.  It is worth noting that he has fallen on his last two visits to Cheltenham.

Solix – This Michael Buckley owned gelding came from France with quite a big reputation midway through last year.  He never quite lived up to this billing but put up some credible efforts, noticeably when finishing fifth off a mark of 152 in the Coral Cup.  A huge horse with plenty of scope he was sent over fences at the beginning of the year.  His jumping was far from convincing on his debut at Ascot (good) over 2m 6f, but nonetheless posted an easy 11 length victory.  After another easy win at Cheltenham (good) over 2m 5f in November, he really announced himself as a horse to follow when going down to Champion Court by 1 ¾  lengths at Cheltenham (good to soft) in December.  He gave the winner 3 pounds and emerges as the best horse at the weights.  Noticeably his jumping was much better on this occasion.  All his runs over fences have been in small fields but he showed the ability to handle the hustle and bustle of a bigger field at last year’s Festival.

Champion Court – There is not too many better looking horses in training than this Martin Keighley trained runner.  He finished fourth in last year’s Albert Bartlett where the 3m 1f trip just seemed to stretch his stamina.  Unsurprisingly he was sent over the larger obstacles at the beginning of the year.  He unseated his rider on his chase debut at Perth (good to soft) in September but made amends the following month at Aintree (good) over 2m 4f.  He was set an impossible task on his next start at Cheltenham (good) in November when trying to give Grand Crus five pounds, eventually going down by 10 lengths, over 2m 5f.  He once again found his stamina stretched when stepped up to 3m 2f at Cheltenham (good) in December, but returned to winning ways over the intermediate trip with a game front running performance in the Grade 2 Dipper Novice Chase at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January where he beat Solix (gave 3 pounds) by 1 ¾ lengths.  A feature of this race was how well he jumped from the front, something that was evident at Aintree in October.  It looks like connections will apply similar tactics going forward and this assured jumper is well equipped to running this type of race.

Cristal Bonus – Formerly trained by Evan Williams, this high class ex French Hurdler moved to Ditcheat at the start of the year to begin a career over fences.  Cristal Bonus made a winning debut over 2m 4f at Chepstow (heavy) in January where he was not extended in running out a very easy 25 length winner.  A feature of this performance was his superb fencing.  This was evidenced again in his final start where he captured the Grade 2 Pendil Novice Chase over 2m 5f at Kempton (good) in February by 13 lengths from Duke Of Lucca.  He did jump to his left at many fences here, but this wont pose a problem around Cheltenham.  He looks to have a leading chance in the Jewson where his alacrity over his fences will stand to him in good stead.

Call The Police – Willie Mullins looks to have Ireland’s leading Jewson contender in the shape of this lightly raced 9yo.  Call The Police was not extended in making an impressive debut over fences at Gowran Park (soft) over 2m 4f in November.  An indication of the regard that he is held by connections is the fact that on his final start he was considered good enough to contest the Grade 1 PJ Moriarty Chase over 2m 5f at Leopardstown (good to soft).  This is a race that Willie Mullins has often targeted with his leading novice chasers.  Call The Police jumped and travelled well off the decent pace set by Last Instalment but could not live with the finishing kick of the later over the last, 1 ½ lengths separating the pair in the end.  It was a cracking effort from the runner up on only his second start and he looks a natural over the larger obstacles.  He goes to the Festival with a leading chance but he underperformed last year over course and distance when a well beaten 7-2f for the Coral Cup.  All his lifetime wins have come with soft in the going description with his two most disappointing efforts coming on good ground.

Verdict – Ireland won the inaugural running of this race with Noble Prince and our main hope looks to be Call The Police.  The latter performed poorly at the track last year when 7-2f for the Coral Cup.  All his best form is on heavy and so it is probably best to focus on the English horses when looking for the winner.  Solix is the horse that interest me the most and on three pounds better terms I would be hopeful that he can reverse form with Champion Court.  At 10-1 he is a good each way play.

Pertemps Final

Our Father (rated 148) – When it comes to winning handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, no one is more adept than the team at Pond House.  In this David Johnson owned runner, they have a very likely candidate for the Pertemps.  After a promising novice hurdle campaign, he appeared very well treated off an opening mark of 129.  At Ascot (soft) in December, he proved this to be correct when running out a tidy 1 ½ length winner of a Class 3 Handicap, where he was value for much more.  The handicapper agreed and has raised a whopping 19 pounds.  Our Father still looks unexposed, and promises further improvement when stepped up in trip.  Interestingly he held an entry for the World Hurdler which is indicative of the regard he is held in at Pond House.

Jetson (rated 132) – This second season novice was switched to the Jessica Harrington yard from Noel Meade at the start of the season.  He made a winning start at Cork (soft) over 2m 4f in November.  He was steped up to graded class on his next couple of starts but proved no match for the high class Mount Benbulben and Boston Bob at Navan (soft to heavy) in November and December.  He made a winning handicap debut off a mark of 124 in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown (soft) in December where he appreciated the step up in trip.  He has yet to race on ground better than soft but his breeding suggests that he should handle a better surface, being out of the same family as Noel Meade’s former high class hurdler Jered.

Sivola De Sivola (rated 132) – After winning a novice hurdle over 2m 4f at Carlisle (good to soft) in October, this Tom George gelding was stepped up in class for a Grade 2 at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November where he ran a race full of promise in finishing a 13 length fifth to the high class Fingal Bay.  It was noticeable that he was doing his best work late on, which is unsurprising being out of the same family as My Will.  He landed a bit of a touch on his next start by winning the Pertemps Qualifier at Newbury (good to soft) in December off a mark of 122.  Unsurprisingly the handicapper raised him 10 pounds which left him right on the bubble for getting into the Pertemps.  On his final start at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January he was stepped back to the minimum trip and again ran a race full of promise running on powerfully to finish a 5 ¼ length fourth to his stablemate Module.  The handicapper raised him another 2 pounds which ensures he should get into the race near the bottom of the weights.

Thehillofuisneach (rated 138) – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill and running in the colours of Ffos Las supremo Dai Walters, Thehillofuisneach made his handicap debut over 2m 6f at Huntingdon (good to soft) in December off a mark of 101.  He was not over extended in coasting to an easy 6 length success.  He was quickly turned out a week later at Uttoxeter (soft) over 3m under a mandatory 7 pound penalty, making him 10 pounds well in.  He only had to be pushed out by AP McCoy to record a very cheeky ¾ length win.  On his final start in a Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick (good to soft) over 3m 1f in January it was more of the same as he defied a mark of 130 with consummate ease, been value for much more than the official 1 length winning margin.  He is now on a mark of 138, but one gets the impression that there is much more to come and he rates a serious contender for the Pertemps.

Sergent Guib’s (rated 140) – When Rich Ricci bought Sergent Guibs, I would guess that a crack at the Pertemps was not the race they had in mind for his Festival target.  Sergent Guib’s was sent off the 11-8f to make a winning debut in the Noel Farrelly Memorial Hurdle over 2m 4f at Punchestown (soft to heavy) in January but trailed in a well beaten 8 ¼ length third to the novice Ipsos De Berlais, where he was noticeably big at many of his obstacles.  He put in a much more encouraging performance on his final start in the Pertemps Qualifier over 3m at Punchestown (soft) in February.  Carrying top weight he travelled and jumped much better over this extra 4f but could make little inroads on the run to the line, finishing a 3 length third.  One gets the impression that this lightly raced horse is not badly treated off 140, and is more than capable of shown further improvement in this race.

Verdict – Horses with an official rating 129 – 142 have won seven of the last ten renewals.  Horses rated 150+ have struggled as have 5yos.  Our Father is held in high regard and looks well equipped to carry a big weight in a handicap like this.  I would respect his chance greatly but he would almost want to be Grade 1 class to give over a stone to Sivola De Sivola.  The later looks extremely well handicapped to me and will relish the step in trip he is presented with here.  At 17-2 he might well be one of the best each way bets of the Festival.

Ryanair Chase

Rubi Light – Filling the sizable void left by Sublimity was never going to be easy but the Hennessy’s have found a more than able replacement in Rubi Light.  It’s hard to believe that this 166 rated chaser was beaten off 143 at Limerick around this time last year.  It was in last year’s Ryanair that he began to show his true capabilities when a 3 length second to Albertas Run.  He may have gone a lot closer but for a blunder three out.  He was in the process of running out a convincing winner in a Grade 2 over 2m 4f at Gowran Park (soft) in October but for fallen at the last.  He made amends for this mishap when running out a ready winner of the Grade 1 John Durkan over 2m 4f at Punchestown (heavy) in December.  Connections decided to step him up in trip in the Grade 1 Lexus at Leopardstown (good) and he ran another solid race in finishing 8 ½ lengths second to Synchronised.  His final start came in the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park (soft) where he easily justified odds of 2-5f.  It must be said that his form figures since the Ryanair slightly flatter him as the Irish staying division looks below standard.  While he is effective on better ground as he proved in last year’s Ryanair, he would seem to be far more effective with plenty of cut.  Should the going turn out soft for the Festival I would fancy him more, but on decent ground he may just find a couple too good.

Riverside Theatre – This Jimmy Nesbitt owned gelding made a belated seasonal reappearance in the Grade 2 Betfair Chase over 2m 5f at Ascot (good to soft) where he beat the high class Medermit by 3 lengths, the pair well clear.   Riverside Theatre won this very race on his previous racecourse visit but unfortunately had to miss the Ryanair having met with a setback.  This win propelled him to the top of the Ryanair market and he has a leading chance.  There is a train of thought that he is better going righthanded but he has won going lefthanded twice.  My main concern is that he has done all his winning on flat tracks and on his only appearance at Cheltenham in the 2010 Arkle he appeared to struggle with the up and down nature of the track.

Noble Prince – Paul Nolan’s charge ran out a ready 4 length winner of the inaugural Grade 2 Jewson Novice Chase at the Festival which is run over the Ryanair trip.  He followed that up with a success in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse.  So far this year he has been campaigned over the minimum trip and ran with great credit behind Big Zeb in the Fortria Chase at Navan (good to soft) and the Dial A Bet Chase at Leopardstown (good).  He was slightly disappointing on his final start in the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase over 2m 1f at Fairyhouse (soft) where he finished a ¾ length runner up to Blazing Tempo.  The form of last year’s Jewson has not really held up that well with Wishfull Thinking and Loosen My Load underperforming.  There is little doubt that Noble Prince’s optimum conditions are 2m 5f on a sound surface and one could easily see him emerging as Ireland’s leading chance in the Ryanair.

Great Endeavour – The winner of the 2010 Plate at the Festival, showed his liking for course and distance when running out an impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November (good to soft).  He won this in the manner of a much improved animal.  Connections then decided to run him in the Henessey at Newbury (good) in November and nothing travelled better to the three mile mark.   However his stamina soon began to wane and he trailed in a 5 length fourth to Carruthers.  He finished down the field in the December Gold Cup over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good), where he was unable to recover after making a bad mistake at the tenth fence.  This represented his third hard race in the space of a month and in truth probably represented a race too far.  The winner was Quantitativeeasing who Great Endeavour easily brushed aside in November.

Medermit – This Alan King trained gelding began his year in fine form with a good win in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter (good) over 2m 2f in November.  He proved no match for Master Minded and Somersby on his next run in the Grade 2 Amlin Chase over 2m 1f at Ascot (good) in November.  He ran an absolute cracker in the December Gold Cup over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good) when going down ¾ of a length to Quantitativeeasing who was in receipt of 12 pounds. He had his final start in the Grade 2 Betfair Chase at Ascot (good to soft) in February where he finished 3 lengths behind the classy Riverside Theatre.  He may have finished much closer but for nearly unseating Robert Thornton at the tenth fence.  This result confirmed the opinion that 2m 5f is Medermit’s best trip as he finished a ¾ length second to Hells Bay in the Grade 2 Dipper Novice Chase at Cheltenham in 2011.  With course figures of 2237242 one would expect him to run another good race but probably has place prospects at best as he just seems to be below genuine Grade 1 class.

Somersby – Made a successful seasonal debut at Kempton (good) in October over 2m 5f where he easily dispatched with the challenge of Aiteen Thirtythree.  Surprisingly this was his first win in almost two years.  He followed that up with a 3 length second to Master Minded in the Grade 2 Amlin Chase at Ascot (good to soft) over 2m 1f.  He was sent off a well backed favourite for the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon (good to soft) in December where he was well favoured at the weights but was laboured in finishing a 4 length second to Gauvain.  He may just have found this race coming a bit too soon on the back of his fine effort at Ascot the time before.  Connections decided to step him up to 3m for the first time in the King George (good to soft) where he travelled powerfully to 4 out until his effort petered out.  He finally gained a deserved Grade 1 success with a battling performance to beat Finian’s Rainbow by 1 ¼ lengths in the Victor Chandler over 2m 1f at Ascot (good) in January.  There is no doubt that he likes Ascot but his career record at the Festival is excellent and includes a 3^rd place finish in the Supreme, a 2^nd place finish in the Arkle and a 5^th place finish in the Champion Chase.  The Ryanair trip looks his optimum trip and connections probably regret not aiming him at this race last year but will be hopeful he can make amends this time round.

Verdict – This looks the best renewal of the Ryanair and a strong case could be made for any of the leading contenders.  Traditionally the Paddy Power Gold Cup has proved a useful trial but in recent years the race has attracted better horses and so it has paid to focus on those horses with proven Grade 1 form.  This immediately points to Riverside Theatre and Somersby.  Riverside Theatre has won two Grade 1s in his last two runs over this trip but I would be concerned about his effectiveness at this track.  The selection is Somersby at 8-1 each way in the hope that 2m5f represents his best trip and back on a course where he has performed well at the highest level, he is taken to finally capture a Grade 1 at the Festival.

World Hurdle

Big Buck’s – The greatest staying Hurdler of all time extended his winning steak over timber to fourteen with victories in the Long Distance and Long walk Hurdles at Newbury (good to soft) and Ascot (soft) respectively.  This was extended to fifteen with victory over Dynaste in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham (good) in January.  It’s really hard to believe that he is only rising 9 and although he will be beaten at some point in the future it is very difficult to see who amongst his potential opponents are capable of mounting a credible challenge.  Critics often point to the fact that he has never achieved a decent speed figure.  I think this is down to the fact that World Hurdles are notoriously slow run affairs and not conducive  to achieving such figures.  It is noticeable that he achieved his best speed figure in his latest effort at Ascot where Dynaste set out to make all.  Although he managed to briefly get Big Buck’s off the birdle, in the end he ran out a very easy winner.

So Young – This Willie Mullins trained gelding is very much a talking horse.  He was the subject of a considerable gamble for last year’s Neptune on the back of strong home gallops with Hurricane Fly.  He finished third, beaten 4 ½ lengths but would have been closer but for a blunder at the last.  So far this year he has had little difficulty in justifying long odds on at Punchestown (soft) over 2m 6f and Thurles (heavy) over 2m.  On his final start he demonstrated plenty of pace in beating the classy novice Trifolium over 2m at Navan (soft to heavy) in January.  As a rising 6 year old he is open to a lot of physical improvement but has some way to go before he justifies his lofty home reputation.

Mikael D’Haguenet – After a disappointing and fruitless season as a novice chaser, Willie Mullins decided to revert back to the smaller obstacles with the 2010 Neptune hero Mikael D’Haguenet.  He was well punted to make a winner return in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle over 2m 4f at Navan (good to soft) in November but could only finish a 7 ¼ length third to Voler La Vedette.  He travelled well enough to two out but found disappointingly little after a slight mistake at that flight of hurdles.  He returned to winning ways under a cheeky ride by Paul Townsend in a Listed Hurdle over the minimum trip at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) in December.  He was not overly extended to justify odds on favouritism in a similar contest at Punchestown (heavy) towards the end of December.  He completed a hattrick of victories with a smooth success in the Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle over 2m 1f at Naas (soft to heavy) in January.  In truth these victories did not tell us an awful lot about Mikael D’Haguenet other than the fact that he has been smartly campaigned.  This impression was confirmed on his final start in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle over 2m 5f at Navan (soft) in February where he was firmly put in his place by Mourad (who had disappointed largely up to this race).  He looks below genuine Grade 1 level and it is difficult to see him making any impression in this race.

Oscar Whisky – Third in last year’s Champion Hurdle, beaten just over 6 lengths and winner of the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle over 2m 4f, connections decided to step him up in trip with a view to tackling Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle.  He began the year by fallen at the last in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot (good) over 2m 4f.  He looked to be staying on and could be deemed an unlucky loser.  It was still a hell of a run as he was trying to concede 8 pounds to the high class Overturn.  He showed that he was none the worse for that fall when giving the enigmatic Get Me Out Of Here 8 pounds and a 1 ¾ length beating in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good) in December.  On his final start he gave 8 pounds and a 2 length beating to the 155 rated Poungach at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January.  He is certainly the classiest opponent that Big Bucks will have faced to date.  If he does stay the 3m trip, his potent turn of foot may be enough to shake up the Champ.

Voler La Vedette – Colm Murphy’s high class mare has enjoyed another fantastic season.  She began this season by Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle over 2m 4f at Navan (good to soft) in November.  She landed her first Grade 1 of her career when winning the Hatton’s Grace over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) in December, beating Mourad by a comfortable 3 ¾  lengths.  She confirmed her superiority over Mourad in the Grade 2 Woddiesdiy.com Hurdle over 3m at Leopardstown (good) in December, 4 ¾ lengths separating the pair.  She was beaten a length by Zaidpour under an astute ride by Ruby Walsh on her final start over 3m in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park (soft to heavy) in January.  Her superiority over Mourad will give her supporters hope that she can beat Quevega as the latter really put it up to the high class mare at Punchestown last year.  Voler La Vedette did not travel to Cheltenham last year as connections felt that she does not travel well and felt that she was not at her best as a result when the pair clashed in 2010.  There is little doubt that Voler La Vadette goes into this festival in arguably the form of her life but her chance may well be dependent on how well she handles the journey over.

Dynaste – This David Pipe runner manage to start the year by giving the Pond House team back to back winners of the Fixed Brush Hurdle over 3m 1f at Haydock (good to soft) in November, where he arguably put up as impressive a victory as his much heralded stablemate Grand Crus did twelve months earlier.  Plans to go chasing were understandably aborted after this with connections deciding to set their sights on tackling Big Buck’s.  The pair crossed swords for the first time in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (soft) in December.  Dynaste set a frantic pace from the off, applying similar tactics to those used at Haydock and for a brief few seconds he looked like he had Big Buck’s in trouble, but ultimately he finished a 19 length fourth.  Undoubtedly he lost second by trying to win his race.  On his final start at Cheltenham (good to soft) in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle he was ridden with more restrain, only taking up the running three out where he attempted to skip clear of the field.  Again he looked like he had Big Buck’s in trouble, but despite jumping the last in unison he was outstayed up the Cheltenham Hill, beaten 7 lengths in the end.  He is well worth his place in the World Hurdle but on all evidence he has place prospects at best.

Verdict – Big Buck’s is the probable winner but faces the best field ever assembled for a World Hurdle.  He has never produced a decent speed figure due to the fact that these races are generally slowly run affairs.  Last year Grand Crus was ridden to beat him for toe but it made little difference as Big Buck’s has plenty of speed.  It was interesting that at Aintree where the pace was generous that Big Buck’s put up arguably his most impressive performance to date.  I feel that this may be a fast run race and that Big Buck’s will put up an exceptional performance.  You are always looking for cracks to exploit in a champion but in truth Big Buck’s does not have any I can identify.  I have my doubts about Oscar Whisky staying this trip in a fast run race and those looking for some each way value could do worse than look in the direction of David Pipe’s Dynaste at 14-1.

Byrne Group Plate

Crack Away Jack (rated 142) – This former high class hurdler was switched to the Paul Nicholls yard at the beginning of last year.  After a couple of disappointing efforts he was sent away for a wind operation and put away for the year.  He made his seasonal debut at Cheltenham (good) in a Class B Handicap Chase over 2m in November where he was backed to make a winning debut off what appeared a lenient mark of 142 (rated 158 at his peak over hurdles).  Held up out the back as is his want he started to make steady progress until losing all momentum and chance with a bad blunder at the third last, eventually trailing in  just under 10 lengths behind Tanks For That.  His final start came in a Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (good to soft) over 2m 3f in February where is ran well without ever really threatening.  His Festival record is quite impressive with a win in the 2008 Fred Winter and a fourth place finish in the 2009 Champion Hurdle.  He looks dangerously well handicapped for the Plate, where provided he puts in an error free round must go close.

Salut Flo (rated 137) – The team at Pond House are renown for winning handicaps at the festival and in this ex French horse David Pipe may well have a very well handicapped horse on his hands.  Certainly someone felt he was well handicapped as he was sent off 13-2 for his seasonal debut in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (good) in December on what was only his third race on a British racetrack.  Always prominent he jumped nicely in the main until making a bad blunder at the third last from which he failed to recover.  He was certainly travelling as good as any other runner at that point and while it is conjecture to speculate on what might have happened, it is fair to say he was running a big race.  The handicapper has dropped him one pound to 137 and provided he is none the worse for the experience he must go close off that mark.  He won on his British debut at Doncaster in March 2010 on good ground and so better ground at the festival should not inconvenience him.

Divers (rated 142) – This Ferdy Murphy runner won last year’s Centenary Novice Handicap Chase off a mark of 132.  He was pulled up on his seasonal debut at Carlisle (good to soft) in October which was no more than a prep for his early season target, the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November.  Racing off his revised mark of 144, he ran a fine race in finishing a 10 ½ length third to the impressive Great Endeavour.  He was only 3 ½ lengths behind Quantitativeeasing off level weights.  In the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (good) he unseated his rider at the 11^th fence in a race won by Quantitativeeasing.  The winner is now rated 153 which makes Divers look attractively weighted off 142 especially if he gets his favoured good ground.  AP McCoy has being booked for the ride in the absence of Graham Lee.

Hunt Ball (rated 142) – Keiran Burke enjoyed a great final season as a jockey by capturing the Byrne Group Plate with Holmwood Legend and finishing runner up on Sparky May in the David Nicholson at the Cheltenham Festival.  Hunt Ball looks like he could be the flag bearer for his career as a trainer.  Hunt Ball began the season by winning a Novice Handicap over 2m 5f at Folkestone (good to firm) off the lowly mark of 69.  On his seventh and final start over 2m 5f at Kempton (good) in February he defied a mark of 127 with consummate ease.  This win ensured that he would qualify for either the Centenary Novice Handicap or the Plate at the Festival off his revised mark.  He still looks ahead of the handicapper, has shown his ability to handle an undulating track and his assured fencing will be a huge asset in an cauldron like the Cheltenham Festival.

Verdict – Only two out of the last twenty four winners were rated higher than 141.  Nickey Henderson and Venetia Williams have a good recent record in this race and their runners automatically command respect.  Salut Flo looks an ideal type for this race and could be potentially much better than his current mark.  I am happy to put him up at 10-1 each way.

Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Sunnyhillboy (rated 142) – This Jonjo O’Neill runner began his season back over hurdles in the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock in November, where he finished well down the field.  That run was expected to put him spot on for his early season target, the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (good).  He was the subject of a huge racecourse gamble and went off the 7-2f.  His supporters did not get much of a run for their money and he was pulled up before two out, having never travelled that well throughout.  Post-race it emerged that he was suffering from an irregular heartbeat and so a line can easily be drawn through that effort.  Certainly, the size of the gamble would indicate that connections of this JP McManus owned gelding felt that he was well handicapped off his mark of 142.  It is easy to see why when Great Endeavour who he has finished closely behind on two previous occasions is now rated 157.  He returned to hurdles for his final start where he ran down the field in a Pertemps Qualifier at Haydock (heavy) in February.  He ran well enough for a long way on ground that would not be to his liking, the race presumably been used as a confidence builder more than anything else for a return to fences.  One always got the impression that there is a big pot to be won with this son of Old Vic. He started favourite for this race last year and it would be no surprise to see him land the prize this time round should he put in a clear round.

Deal Done (rated132) – This Dessie Hughes runner has not being sighted since finishing well down the field in last year’s Irish Grand National.  Prior to that he was a very good third in this race off a mark of 136 to the handicap good thing Junior.  He was beaten just over 27 lengths by the winner but if you took him out he would have been beaten just over 3 lengths.  He was fitted with a first time visor and this certainly worked the oracle as he posted a much improved effort.  It is fair to say that he also benefitted from the better ground and step up in trip.  A concern for his supporters would be that he has a poor record fresh and the reapplication of the visor may not be as effective second time round.

Verdict – This tough handicap has been upgraded from a 0-140 handicap to a 0-145.  As it is an amateur race, jockeyship is of paramount importance and it usually pays to focus on those horses that are ridden by the top English and Irish amateurs, emphasised by the fact that JJ Codd has ridden two of the last three winners.  In recent renewals, Donal McCain and Nicky Henderson have a good record and their runners are worth noting.  Sunnyhillboy could be the subject of a Junior like gamble and is a confident selection.  He looks a huge price at 14-1 each way.

Fenway Park’s Cheltenham preview continues with this preview of the second day’s racing.